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- Canada's stronger-than-expected Q4 2023 GDP growth of 1.0% annualized (vs 0.8% forecast)
- Speculation about extended OPEC+ production cuts amid Middle East supply concerns
- Market recalibration of Fed rate cut expectations following recent US inflation data
- Just 3% probability of March rate cut
- 23.1% chance of May easing
- 52.2% likelihood of June policy shift
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Why Is USD/CAD Dropping to 1.3560? | Oil Prices & US Data in Focus
The What is Elon Musk's coin called?USD/CAD currency pair has snapped its five-day winning streak, sliding toward the 1.3560 level during Asian trading hours. This reversal coincides with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil climbing toward $78.10 per barrel - a significant development given Canada's position as the top petroleum exporter to the United States.
Fundamental drivers behind the move include:
Energy markets remain a critical factor for the loonie, with oil prices finding support from both geopolitical tensions and potential supply constraints. Meanwhile, the US dollar's momentum appears to be cooling as traders await the final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reading for February.
Interest rate expectations continue evolving, with CME FedWatch data showing:
Federal Reserve officials including Atlanta's Bostic and Chicago's Goolsbee have recently emphasized the gradual path toward 2% inflation, suggesting monetary policy may remain restrictive through mid-year. This creates an interesting dynamic for USD/CAD as Canada's commodity-linked currency responds to both energy fundamentals and diverging central bank policies.
Traders should monitor whether oil prices can sustain gains above $78 along with upcoming US manufacturing data for confirmation of the pair's near-term direction. The technical breakdown below 1.3600 suggests potential for further downside if current market drivers persist.
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